and dragons. >> almost made it without mentioning dwarf pie nis. 20 more seconds. left, the speaker of the house and president are locked in tense debt negotiations but both sides say they are not close to a deal. fox polls indicate significant move in the the 2012 g.o.p. race. one year since major wall street reforms. so what has changed? live from the studio in washington, this is "special report." good evening. i'm bret baier. multiple reports of a possible deal on the debt ceiling today had washington jumping. 12 days from the debt ceiling deadline. for all of the excitement early in the day, things at this hour are much less clear. senior white house foreign affairs wendell goler is at the white house tonight with the latest. good evening, wendell. >> good evening. the president is meeting right

now with the democratic leaders of the house and senate, talking about a plan to cut the deficit and raise the debt ceiling. less than two weeks to go before the nation runs out of borrowing authority. they are still debating what they say has less than a chance of passing and even less with getting signature. with time running out on the borrowing authority, senate considered a house pass deficit cutting plan that democrats said had less than one chance in a million. >> does the half baked concoction of ideas that don't hold together, that don't add up, that would actually further threaten the economic recovery. >> theydynied report they were close to spending cut but no increase tax revenue. >> there is no deal, not close to a deal. >> boehner himself warned the deficit must be cut and the debt ceiling raised to protect the country's credit rating. >> if the united states of america debt rating gets downgraded, every interest rate in america will go up.

it's -- it is important for us to act on both fronts. >> the president's advisors suggest an agreement needed by the end of the week to give congress time to pass the legislation before the august 2 deadline on the debt creteing. now the august date emergeed as the deadline for an agreement and senate majority leader reid is angry that the house plans to be off this coming weekend. >> i think it is just untoward, that is the kindest word i can say to the house of representatives out this weekend. what a bad picture that shows the country. >> meanwhile, experts say house speaker boehner could attach a debt ceiling hike to legislation that has already passed the senate if the deficit talks collapse. but boehner says the ball is in the president's court. mr. obama spokesman suggests he is talking with several congressional leaders including boehner about several different deficit cutting plans. >> the president is in discussions with all the leaders of congress, as well as other members. exploring the possibility of getting the biggest deal possible, which is a position

he has held for a long time now as you know. >> aides say the president still refuses to consider a deficit cutting plan that doesn't include some increased tax revenue. and speaker boehner still refuses to consider higher taxes. while mr. obama has melt separately with democrats and republicans in recent days, it's been a week since they all met together. bret? >> bret: more on this with the panel. wendell, thank you. stocks were up today. the dow added 152. the s&p 500 gained 18. the nasdaq closed 20 ahead. while stocks were up today, america overall financial situation is mixed bad. peter barnes takes a panoramic view of the economy, one year after wall street reform. >> reporter: u.s. investors cheered europe new bail-out plan for greece. >> most of the european banks are not going to fail. it won't spill over. >> buzz about debt ceiling deal and good corporate earnings helped too. but the profits remain strong

in part because many companies are keeping cost down by holding off hiring. more proof came today when unemployment insurance claims jumped unexpectedly and remain high at 400,000 a week. realtors reported sales of existing homes fell in june to the lowest pace in 14 years. none of it good news for president more than a year away from election day. >> no question we face head winds. the president has been direct about that. we can do everything we can. across the front to ensure that we're doing what we can to spur growth and job creation. >> in the senate, they reviewed progress of the dodd-frank regulation reform signed in law by the president a year ago. the birthday card from republicans read you have been a job-killer. >> for millions of americans, the one year anniversary of dodd-frank provides little

comfort as they continue to deal with the harsh economic reality marked by little to no innovation. anemic economic growth and virtually no job creation. >> they favor rewriting portion of the legislation but supporters say leave it alone. it's working fine. >> the u.s. financial system today is stronger, more stable. and better able to fuel growth. and create jobs. >> still, regulators lag in the financial rule-writing, finishing just 50 proceedings under the more than 240 required by the law. >> reporter: with the one-year anniversary of dodd-frank and the consume procedure text bureau it created safely opened for business today but they're blocking confirmation of the president's nominee to head it. until he takes over, the bureau will operate with limited powers. >> bret: thank you. despite the depressed sales peter told us about, the average rate on 30-year fixed mortgage picked up slightly this week. rates are historically low.

but many people cannot take advantage of them because of tighter lending standards, and bigger required down payments. the treasury department has sold its remaining 98,000 chrysler shares to italian auto maker fiat for $560 million. in order to get the deal done, though, the treasury department had to eat the remaining $1.3 billion from the $12.5 billion bail-out of the company. officials say taxpayers should not expect to get that money back. chrysler earned a net income of $116 million in the first quarter alone and is forecasting a half billion dollars in earnings next year. back and forth between the fellow lawmakers democrat debbie wasserman schultz and republican allen west is not showing signs of stopping. this west this week fired off angry e-mail to wasserman schultz for questioning his stance on medicare. and west called her vile, unprofessional and despicable but insists he is not

apologizing. >> i stand by what i said. she was the one who publicly released it out to the media. i had no intention of that happening. >> bret: earlier west tweeted u.s. is in crisis and everyone wants to talk about congressional members not getting along. it's insummitting to americans to waste airtime on this. congressional black caucus originally suggested it would speak out to west's comments has decided to drop the matter. the place in history is secured. the space shuttle pulls in port for the last time. its voyage at an end. >> bret: just before dawn, space shuttle atlantis with four astronauts on board touched down for the final time at the florida kennedy space center and it was the final mission for the space shuttle program after 30 years. space flight is now set to shift to private companies, but they aren't expect -- they aren't expected to launch americans in space for three

years. ♪ >> bret: american election headquarters tonight, new fox poll show rapidly changing portion of the 2012 field. two of the top three spots changed in the last three months and a media favorite has to deal with a staff shakeup. chief political correspondent carl cameron has the story. >> reporter: texas governor rick perry is contending for first place in the g.o.p. presidential race though he has yet to decide if he will run. the latest fox poll shows mitt romney down 17%, down a point since late june. perry gained a point to 14%. virtual sty with -- virtual tie with romney. bachmann dropped but only other candidate in double digits. perry aides say it could take a week to a month before they have the information they want that the governor wants before making a time decision. the response and momentum so far has been so positive they are charging ahead as though perry is in.

former new york mayor rudy giuliani last week said he is not really exploring slipped to nine. tied with former alaska governor sarah palin who inched up a point. and texas congressman ron paul whether or not gained two. the rest of the field is 5% or less. president matched up with the individual republicans is only six points up, barely outside the poll's margin of error. he leads romney and tim pawlenty, and michele bachmann. mr. obama yesterday contradicted his campaign rhetoric, aimed to frame it as a choice between the party's plans for the future, indicating instead little be a referendum for voter on the four-year record. i'll probably win and lose on the assessment of the stewardship. with an anemic 2% on the poll, jon huntsman changed the stewardship with a manager matt david. former aide to schwarzenegger and veteran of the bush and mccain campaign. he plans to step up criticism of the rival; particularly, romney, and quote indictment of obama's record

in new hampshire, buddy romer launched his bid. democrat in congress before becoming republican as governor in '91, a longshot yet to show up in the polls with little name recognition or cash. the story of the poll is perry, who without entering the race is battling for the lead and picking up steam in washington, carl cameron, fox news. >> bret: speaking of "steam," the soaring temperatures that plagued the midwest for much of the week have spread further east. look at this. the heat indexes. forecasters have issued excessive heat warning for huge section of the country from kansas, to massachusetts. nearly two dozen deaths have been blamed on the temperatures. the national weather service expects triple-digit temperatures in the eastern part of the country through saturday before cooling off to the mid-90s on sunday. u.s. ambassador to the united nations says some countrys may cease to exist. we'll tell you why. on the grapevine. and what have we learned in the seven years since the 9/11

commission issued its report?

>> bret: checking international headlines now. the syrian city of homes saw intense and sustained violence between government security forces and pro-democracy protesters. several neighborhoods gunfire was too intense to collect victims from the streets. libyan leader muammar gaddafi forces launched a fierce counterattack against rebels today who seized a town east of the capital of tripoli. they reported casualties near the oil port city of brega. they say gaddafi forces boobytraped petroleum installation in brega to blow them up if the regime loses the town. tomorrow is seven years to the day since the 9/11 commission issued its report. the question is what have we

learned? catherine herridge takes a closer look. >> reporter: while usama bin laden was killed in may, the al-qaeda franchise in emen is american leader anwar al-awlaki and homegrown threats are the next wave. decade after 9/11 bin laden was only part of the story. >> terrorism didn't begin with him. it hadn't ended with him. we have the other groups now in addition to core al-qaeda. >> reporter: progress report investigates whether the 9/11 recommendations are implemented says the homegrown terrorism is central to the emerging threat picture. recent justice department document show a case of homegrown terrorism with links to international group every two to three weeks, since january 2009. last week, a 22-year-old pennsylvania man was accused of using the internet to encourage domestic attacks by jihaddist. >> we can't presume a threat will come at us from abroad. >> the plots have been

disrupted without public knowledge. >> they are not public knowledge? >> probably not. >> a handful? a doesen? >> i don't want to put a number on it. >> they say multilayered approach to airline security was adopted. intelligence used broadly to identify cargo before entering the u.s. it could mean less invasive screening in the future. >> things you take off going through the gate to relieve the restrictions. >> napolitano says cyber security is a weakness. >> almost by the time we talk about a particular virus or malware, it's already anachronistic, out of date. >> they point to the communication problems that have not been resolved for the

first-responders in washington, catherine herridge, fox news. >> bret: u.s. officials plan to transfer high value terrorist to iraqi authorities in a matter of days. ali musadaqtuk was a commanderrer who iran used to train those attacking american forces in kabbalah in 2007. the attack there is said to be one of the boldest and most sophisticated of the war and resulted in five american deaths. american taxpayer dollars are vanishing in afghanistan. likely in the hands of those trying to kill our troops. that is according to a new audit. the u.s. agencies limited oversight on the cash that enters the afghan economy, leaving it open to fraud, or diversion to the insurgency. late this afternoon, the senate unanimously passed a bill to extend the term of f.b.i. director robert mueller by two years. number of republicans originally voiced concerns, but by this morning, kentucky

senator rand paul was the lone hold-out. after meeting with mueller, paul was satisfied. the president must formally send up the nomination. fear of pirates is having a big impact on the world economy. we will explain. but first, early look at president obama's re-election effort. @@

this just in. friday, the pentagon will appeal the controversial "don't ask, don't tell" policy that has kept gays from openly serving in the military. according to the law, a 60-day waiting period goes in effect for the policy is officially implemented. other words, in two months.

the federal election committee says john edwards should repay $2.3 million to the federal government after audit found he received matching funds after dropping out of race. edwards' attorney says she doesn't owe anything. in june, he was indicted on eight separate felony charges for alleged violation of campaign finance laws related to the coverup of an affair. most projections say president obama will spend $1 billion on the re-election campaign but getting to the number won't come easy. white house correspondent mike emanuel reports on the political and fundraising tight rope the president has to walk. >> reporter: in the ongoing debt crisis, president obama has been off the campaign trail after headlining 35 rundraiser this year. now they start a speaker series for $5,000 would entitle a donor to attend five events with the obama inside

insiders. senior advisors david plouffe and valerie jarret are expected to participate in future events. a white house spokesman says this is similar to the previous administrations and not crossing any lines. administration officials are permitted to speak at, attend and be featured guest at political event, including rundraisers but they don't -- rundraisers but they don't solicit contribution. tony snow took heat on his contribution on behalf of candidates but experts say insider tops campaign trail is not new. >> call it what it is. selling access. every administration does it. but equally wrong. democrattingic or republican administration. >> speaking of money. >> i did not run for office to help out fat cat bankers on wall street. >> it angered the supporters, they cheered when the former

jp morgan chase senior executive bill daley named white house chief of staff. one year after signing wall street reform legislation and now needing money for the campaign, some suggest mr. obama has to walk a tight rope. >> when he calls wall street bankers fat cats, then his base cheers. so you will see him constantly trying to shift back and forth. and keep wall street happy at one point. and his base happy at another point. >> some consumer advocates say wall street is not where the president should be looking for campaign cash. >> the president needs to tell the true story. that our economy is troubled because the banks crashed it. >> the obama team closed the white house office of political affairs and moved the campaign to chicago to separate politics from governing, which is why experts say having current administration officials participating in fundraising events warrants close scrutiny. at the white house, mike

emanuel, fox news. >> bret: n.f.l. teams are reportedly voting tonight on a tentative deal to end the league's labor dispute. in order for an agreement to be ratified, 24 of 32 owners would need to okay the deal. the players have scheduled a conference call later in the evening with their representatives to decide whether to accept an approved settlement from the owners. federal workers have a good chance of having a job for life. we'll explain next in grapevine. and a real story about fake apple computer stores in china. service was very moving, wasn't it? yes, it was. i'm so glad we could be here for larry. at a time like this, friends and family matter most. even preparing this lunch is a help, emotionally and financially. mm, it's true. i was surprised to hear there was no life insurance. funerals are so expensive. i hope larry can afford it. i know. that's why i'm glad i got a policy through the colonial penn program.

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t socialsecurity.gov, you can apply for retirement, disability, or medicare from your own home! george: chekhov applied in his pajamas.

>> bret: now some fresh pickings from the political grapevine. if you would like job security in an economy withed 9.2% unemployment, look no further than the federal government. a "usa today" analysis found workers in many agencies are more likely to die of natural causes than get laid off or fired. just over a half percent of the federal workers with fired last year compared to the private sector firing about 3%. employee turnover expert says it is a serious management problem. but a federal agency spokesman says it showed skilled and committed workforce.

a group was debateed whether the climate change constituted a peace and security issue that must be addressed and ambassador susan rice called the lack of attention a dereliction of duty because, "as sea levels rise, small island states may well see the territory quite literally drowned. we have dozens of countrys whose very existence is threatened." russia representative argued against a regular review from the council because it would lead to disagreements among nations. finally, buyer beware in china. entire apple stores advertising the newest products and latest gadgets are fakedch especially some of the -- are being faked. even some of the employers fail to realize they're not working for actual company. a blogger who discovered the fake stores said almost everything looked like the real deal but "some things were just not right. the stairs were poorly made. the walls hadn't been painted

properly. apple never writes "apple store" on the signs." fears are growing that somalian piracy could spread across the indian ocean and disrupt a key maritime route to and from asia. reporter david piper explains why the threat should be taken so seriously. >> the strait is where the east connects more than anywhere else with the rest of the world. one of the busiest waterways on the planet. about 30% of the world trade and 50% of the planet energy supply pass through it every year. keeping it free of pirates is crucial for the world's economy. every day they try to keep pirates and smugglers at bay. the fast boat give thems an advantage over the pirate but a huge area to police spreading from singapore in the south to the strait toward myanmar and india. this maritime patrol on the

lookout for smugglers; particularly, those smuggling humans. they also want to show the presence in the important waterway to stop any piracy in the area. >> they have managed to drive the pirates for now out of the malaysian part of the strait. but the pirates still take ships on a weekly basis in other parts of the waterway. >> malaysia marine enforcement officers know they must remain alert. >> it's patrol lesson, the crime rate would increase and the maritime community would be hesitant to go out to sea. >> local piracy here is not done on the same scale. of what is done by the somali pirate of presence. on the map is a long way from the strait. but they have been to the west of the paradise iland.

it would likely have a bigger impact on trade there are growing concern that terrorist could team up to target oil tankers. on the indonesian side of the strait, security forces recently discovered an al-qaeda-link terrorist training camp on the province on the island of sumatra. area where some pirates originate. they are also prepared if the terrorists target ships there. >> they can meet those kind of -- [ inaudible ] >> many nations are making a huge effort to keep the waterway secure at the moment. because they know if the pirates manage to make inroads here, the world could face choppy water ahead in strait of malaka, david piper, fox news. >> how close are we on a deal to raise the nation's debt

ceiling? fox all-stars weigh in. after the break.

the breaking news report you received is incorrect. there is no deal. we are not close to a deal. the president's position, opposition to a short-term extension, short-term lifting of the debt ceiling remains firm. period. >> the ball continues to be in the president's court. it's been there for some time. the house is active. we've passed our "cut, cap and balance" bill, and time for the senate to act. >> at the white house, as you take a live look right now the president is meeting with house and senate democrats, that meeting has been ongoing for the past hour. it continues. it's been a busy day here in washington. trying to track down what is going on. if there is a deal, no deal, a big deal. everyone is shooting a deal

down. what is happening as we're 12 days from the debt ceiling deadline. bring in panel. jonah goldberg. mara liasson of national public radio. and sindcated columnist charles krauthammer. mara? do we have any clarity? >> well, we know there was a all right of deal and it upset the democrats. nothing was decided until everything was decided and the report of the new iteration of the grand bargain that spending cut are front loaded and the revenues would be back loaded and tied in to tax reform in some way. democrats were unhappy. not unlike you saw republicans kind of freak out when they thought there would be a deal with the tax hikes in it. they're up at the white house talking to the president to make sure he means what he says when he said there would be a balanced -- he would

incyst on a balanced deal. something like tax hike. spending cuts. now, i think from what i learn today, the elements that they are working with are the same as they have been working with all along. the problems are the same. how do you get a deal that the republicans can look at the deal and say we didn't raise taxes and democrats can look at the deal and say yes, we did? maybe the way you do it is no net tax increases. you have to have a deal -- >> bret: part of is it the baseline you're using is the extension, we have had this argument many times at this panel. whether the extension of the bush era tax cuts is a tax increase, or whether it's continuing the current tax rates. >> the other problem they had all alongers president and speaker boehner run up against this before is if tax reform is the secret sauce to make it work, in other words once tough tax reform that lowers the rates across the board, you don't feed the bush tax cuts anymore because they are overtake bin the new lower rates for everybody.

how do you guarantee that is going to happen? because that has to happen in the future. it cannot happen before the debt ceiling. >> bret: we should point out that the house minority whip steny hoyer was going to be a guest to get clarity on that side from the house and he was called to the white house and canceled on us. we welcome him back sometimes. jonah, your take where we were today? >> it's a mess. fog of war is the only thing that comes to mind. hard to figure out what the heck was going on, on the hill today. and i have people telling me that diametrically opposed things with absolute confidence several times today. it seems to me -- mara take is more important than mine. but the fund me tall problem is the same. both sides have to turn the keys at the same time. the republicans who i think have a better case on this know that if you pass, if you pass the tax part first, you never get the spending cuts. we have been down that road

before. they can't get burned again not with tea party guys on the tree line watching everything going on. >> but if you put cuts up front you never get revenue. >> the "cut, cap and balance" plan that passed the house with 234 votes will be dealt with in the senate tomorrow. that said, look at the polls. the cnn poll, debt ceiling raised if balanced budget and spending cap favor 66%. constitutional amendment require balanced budget, necessary or non-necessary? necessary, 60%. the point of the polls i think, jonah there is a plan that the house moved forward that the senate will deal with

tomorrow. that is still on the table. raises the debt ceiling. >> you can imagine the frustration of the tea party guys that ran on precisely this sort of thing. they lost the p.r. war. conventional wisdom against them. two of third of americans agree with them. harry reid saying this is among the worst piece of legislation in history. does it become before or after fugitive slave act? i mean, the rhetoric that comes out of the senate is astounding on this. >> charles, you don't buy the thing about the deal today? >> no. what happened is congressional democrats got a whiff of possible deal. where you get entitlement cut and tax reform next year that might increase revenue or might not. they panicked. because they have a religious

belief in raising the taxes. if you don't have that, you can't have a deal so it raised theological panic. more important element if the democrats concede anything on entitlement, let's say a modest structural change, you raise medicare age to equal what is now the age of social security, then you have taken away from the democrats next year, their one issue. they have to defend a lousy economy. obamacare and everything else. disaster way it was in november '10. one issue is mediscare issue. if the democrats have agreed to structural change in medicare it's gone. especially the senate democrats. who know that they are going to lose control of the senate under almost all conditions. hang on to mediscare is the one element which might save the senate. it was the senate democrats up in arms. they raised the ruckus as a

way to kill the baby in the crib. is there wasn't a baby or a crib. >> bret: there is something on republican side. speaker boehner if there are stories he will cut this dale and a lot of uproar about that, is he threatened at all from house majority leader eric cantor in leadership down the road? >> sure. the trick for boehner is how many republican votes does he feel comfortable doing without on any debt ceiling bill? he will lose more than the 59 he lost on the c.r. vote. i don't know how many he would lose. 70, 80. the more he loses the more he needs the democratic volt to pass whatever they'll pass. at some point if you lose too many you just don't have credibility as a leader anymore. i don't know where the number

is. somewhere short of a majority of your majority. but that is one calculations for him. the other thing is the leadership style is not say here is the deal and now i force you to vote for it. but to find where consensus is in the own conference and go from there. it's really hard to find consensus in this conference. because so many of them pledged not to raise dealt ceiling under any circumstances or none satisfied. >> bret: quickly, this is deep in the weeds, but there are two bills in the house currently. military construction and veterans affair that passed the senate. they have comforees already and it could be used as a vehicle to move back to senate and speed up process if they attach something to it. if they attach the charles krauthammer plan a temporary debt increase raise dollar for dollar, what do you think happens? >> i'd say it's half a trillion. i think it would pass in the

house. then the senate and president are in deep water because would they kill it and throw america in default to accept a half year extension which would give them half a year to continue on big items? i think no. they have to swallow it including the president. >> bret: this is fast moving. we'll follow every step. when we come back, significant move in the the fox poll. new one is out for the 2000000

the first stem on the journey to beating barack obama is uniting the party. i can do that. i don't think the other candidates can. i also have record of results.

>> i would dry on 25 years of experience in the private sector to help get america back to work. >> if you look at the latest gallup poll in term of positive intensity, i lead all candidates in terms of positive intensity. secondly, within the last six weeks my name i.d. has gone from 21% to 48%. >> bret: well, there you hear some of the candidates, the g.o.p. field. getting ready for our debate august 11 in ames, iowa. news today. jon huntsman, one of the candidates out there, he has a new campaign manager. his campaign manager left. he has a new cam pape manager. former aid to arnold schwarzenegger. we were talking about polls. the latest fox news polls. as you take a look at the republican field there. romney at 17%. not yet in, texas governor rick perry at 14%. michele bachmann at 10% there you see the rest. we go to the next page. mccain, 5%. gingrich, 4%.

pawlenty and santorum there at 2%. huntsman is at 1%. in this poll. next page about the head-to-head against president obama. you can see where it stacks up there in the front contenders, at least now. it's of course early. we're back with the panel. jonah? >> well, it's, there is a lot of churn out there. i think the polls are best looked at the way real clear politics does it, an average and all the rest. that clears out a lot of the way and puts things where romney is out front and the rest. the huntsman news has political impact of announcing the change in the head waiter on titan tick. >> bret: the campaign has not taken flight. >> it has not. >> bret: despite attention. >> there you go. let's not carry my metaphor too far. i think that to me the most interest thing given where a lot of people thought was going to happen is pawlenty.

where pawlenty has really truly not taken off. he's now simply an iowa candidate. if he doesn't do extremely well in iowa, he is done for. a lot of people thought he was going to be the dark horse guy to show something. he is smelling more and more like lamar alexander in 1996. >> bret: there is anecdotally evidence he is doing well in iowa and up with poll says he is behind michele bachmann there. he somehow surprises and does better than expected in the ames straw poll. >> he has to do that. that is the make-or-break date for him. michele bachmann has been the big surprise of this whole race, how she surged and became for the moment until rick perry decided to get in, all but decided to get in, she became the conservative tea party a terptive to mitt romney. that is the first battle in the republican primary. i think when rick perry gets in there will be a battle between him and michele bachmann who will be the conservative channeler to romney. and, you know, i think michele bachmann is a really

compelling candidate for the republican primary electorate. but perry is an 800-pound gor rilla he's got a lot of mup and apparently a great performer. if he dispatches her, then it's a romney-perry battle. >> bret: charles, the story line on governor perry is he was analyzing the mup situation, seeing where the money was. this is what is taking him so long to officially get in. but there is another potential storyline here. that is he is calling all the former defense officials down to texas. he is boning up on policy issues before jumping in. >> i think everything he is doing indicates a man who is running. if you look at the polls he is in and already running second or third, second in latest poll. he clearly is going to be the first tier candidate. romney obviously is way -- well, he is front rupper. he may not be way out in front but the front runner. then you get perry and then there is a wild card here. if sarah palin who is making noises of getting in. there are some reports she

actually will. one in the "new york post" a couple of days ago. if she does it becomes a three-way contest to become the anti-romney. she goes head-to-head with bachmann particularly as tea party candidates. they're both favorites and they would be splitting that constituency. >> bret: which helps romney in the end. >> helps romney and might help perry in the end. if they split a vote as the straight tea party, he could perhaps rise above them and come in second. i mean, this is like three cushion billiards. it's hard to predict. but it depends in the end, i think on whether palin enters the race or not. if she doesn't, as you describe, but if she does it scrambles who is the big challenger to romney. >> bret: the big issue is who can take on president obama in the general election for most republican voters. here is what the president said in a recent interview.

if next november if they feel like i been on their side, is voters and i been working as hard as i can and getting some things done to move us in the right direction, i'll win. if they don't, then i'll lose. that is not to say the other candidate is irrelevant but it does mean i'm probably going to win or lose depending on their assessment of my stewartship. jonah, that is straightforward. >> that is exactly right. a referendum on obama. we have seen his approval ratings going down in the inside the beltway fight about the debt ceiling limit. but the debt ceiling limit fight reflects badly on the right track/wrong track opinion on the economy and all of that. that is where he takes it in the net. >> bret: last word. >> right about that. i'm surprised he said it. because i guarantee you next year the billion -- guarantee you the billion of adds he runs are not the great stewartship. it's all negative and all about the channeler. he will try to make -- challenger and try to make at

it choice not a referendum. that is his strategy. >> that is what presidential re-elections are always about. >> bret: that is it for the panel. stay tuned for an important weather service announcement on this scorching thursday.

>> bret: finally tonight, it's hot. here in washington it feels like a big dog is breathing on you. a heat wave sweeping the nation. it's important to take precautionary measures to try to stay cool. here is an important announcement from the national weather service. let's just say that it looks like the heat may be getting to them. >> this is a national weather service heat advisory. much of the united states is experiencing extremely high temperatures. while the heat wave persists many municipalities will open cooling centers, outdoor events may be canceled. also, i will be shirtless. stay tuned for